November 6th, 2008
|bias_cut||10:37 pm - Let me break it down for you.|
[cross posted from my journal]
I, too, am pissed the fuck off about some of the racist bullshit (shame on you, Dan Savage) circulating around about how the record high turnout of black voters for Obama passed Prop 8 in California and how horribly homophobic they are.
But let's pretend for a moment that there were no people of color in the U.S. Let's pretend that this past Tuesday, all voters who went to the polls were white. How, then, would the election and the ballot measures have fared?
* McCain would have won the popular vote, 55% to Obama's 43%.
* McCain would have won the following blue states with the following percentage of white votes: Florida (56%), Virginia (60%), Ohio (52%), Indiana (54%), New Mexico (56%), Nevada (53%), Pennsylvania (51%), New Jersey (50%), and Maryland (49%).
* Super blue California would have barely gone for Obama with 51% of the white vote.
* McCain would have won the election in a landslide with a total of 319 electoral votes to Obama's 219.
The ban on gay marriage would still have passed with 55% of the vote.
The ban on gay couples adopting would still have passed with 58% of the vote.
Prop 8 would have been defeated by only a small margin of 51% to 49%.
There is currently no exit poll data on race, but 51% of Colorado voters voted to keep Affirmative Action. According to the most recent census estimate, Colorado is 90% white, so if non-white people are 10% of Colorado's population, I can't help but believe that they didn't at the very least contribute the 1-2% necessary to tip the votes into the Yes category.
The ban on gay marriage would still have passed with 60% of the vote.
There is currently no exit poll data on race, but 58% of Nebraskans voted to end Affirmative Action. According to the most recent census estimate, Nebraska is 91.5% white.
Two other interesting facts that I haven't heard any of these critics mention:
* In Arkansas, 54% of black folks voted to ban gay couples from adopting versus 58% of white voters.
* In Michigan, 59% of black folks voted for stem cell research versus 51% of white voters.
Telling, isn't it?
For all of the critics who want to point fingers at the 70% of black voters in California who voted for Prop 8, I encourage you to look at this data and think hard.
The historic win for Obama that so many people, millions of white people included, are incredibly happy about? Not only did white voters play a huge role in passing some of these terrible ballot measures, but black and brown voters won Obama this goddamn election, so think for a hot minute before you try to bite the hands that fed you.
[ETA: I rechecked some of my links, and fixed the states that I had erroneously counted as McCain wins with white voters. My apologies for the error. They should be fixed now. Thanks!]
The blame on the Mormons is, IMO, fair, because the LDS Church poured money and manpower into this fight like no other single group did. Having a non-CA organization trying to rewrite our constitution pisses me off, as does the fact that Mormons who *didn't* support Prop 8 were harassed by their congregations and elders.
I emailed the Racialicious folks too, since I put it together after I got enraged about Dan Savage's bullshit.
Nothing hits harder than cold, hard FACTS!
I would be so very, very grateful if this were not friends-locked, but that's up to you.
Done! I also posted it publicly in my personal journal. Feel free to link either.
Thank you. I was about to make a post about this. because even if I'm not from USA, this is fucking pissing the hell out of me.
The irony is that all this shit just comes when people are claiming that RACISM IS OVER. It's just... rich. It burns.
After seeing some of the ballot measures, my friend and I joked that the forward thinking voters in Colorado and Nebraska had the forethought to end Affirmative Action because they knew Obama would win and racism would be OVER!
Thanks so much for going to the trouble to put this together and lay it all out; this is very valuable information!
Definitely! It's so easy for dodgy white folks to sidestep the truth of racism, so it's nice to have some cold hard data to wave in their faces.
FUCK YEAH - looks like you did the work I been looking for which is the breakdowns for other states. THANKS
Also let's be blunt. I checked the census and it says California is only 6% Black. It doesn't even break it down into voter eligible status, but let's pretend every Black Californian is a voter and showed up.
Well then if 62 % of the 6 % showed up and voted yes on Prop 8 then what's that 3.7% of Black people voted yes on Prop 8?
As a friend of mine said - it's STOOPID math even before you can call it racist....
Yes, I've seen a breakdown of that math, too. How freaking lazy and idiotic of Dan and the other critics to not even do some goddamn research before resorting to the comforting allure of their racist beliefs!
|Date:||November 7th, 2008 04:48 am (UTC)|| |
this is some awesome work!
Here's to hoping Savage reads my email and recants his bs!
Thank you! I am disappointed that Prop 8 passed, but I am OVER the blame!
|Date:||November 7th, 2008 05:14 am (UTC)|| |
Thank you for crunching the numbers.
I'm thrilled that CNN has such comprehensive data up! I hope it gets archived somewhere so this data isn't lost after a couple of weeks.
Joining in on the thanks for doing this. I'm so sick of hearing about the black hive mind :/.
What gets me is that the 70% number that keeps being thrown out is based on a single exit poll of less than 2,250 people. That's the only source, because you can't exactly look at the ballots and figure out who voted how. So essentially, less than 170 people are being used to brand an entire community as homophobes.
|Date:||November 7th, 2008 12:19 pm (UTC)|| |
Re: Thank you!
It's true! I don't remember enough from my college statistics class, but don't you have to have a randomized sample of a couple thousand people before you can count it as a valid statistical measurement?